Polymarket and comparable prediction markets introduced playing to non-sports areas. The “degen” tradition of decentralized finance has made a number of the bets look actually ridiculous. What are the 5 most absurd bets on Polymarket in 2025?
Abstract
- On Polymarket, individuals guess on every thing: from election winners to the climate in London on a specific date. Such a large spectrum creates area for odd prediction issues.
- Typically the outcomes of those predictions are interpreted controversially, prompting customers to demand a evaluate of the outcomes.
- Whereas some publications deal with Polymarket bets as a public sentiment indicator, others argue that extreme money inflows can manipulate Polymarket information. In conditions like political elections, it may be used to affect the real-world outcomes.
Desk of Contents
Will the return of Christ occur earlier than the discharge of GTA VI?
Grand Theft Auto VI has been probably the most anticipated video video games of 2024. First, its launch was rescheduled for Could. However on Nov. 6, Rockstar Video games postponed the discharge. Now, the sport is anticipated to be launched within the fall of 2026, that means followers should wait an additional yr.
One of many shocking outcomes of this announcement was a surge in individuals betting on a Second Coming in 2025. To be particular, individuals selected a “Jesus Christ returns” choice to the query “What is going to occur earlier than GTA VI?”
Earlier than Rockstar Video games introduced the delay, the variety of individuals betting on Second Coming was under 20%. On Nov. 7, this quantity peaked at 48%. By night, this quantity dropped by 2%. The cumulative quantity of stakes exceeded $3.6 million. As of press time, the Second Coming choice intently follows choices equivalent to “China invades Taiwan” and “Bitcoin hits $1 million.”
It’s understood that such a excessive guess on Jesus’ return solely displays the size of disappointment concerning the sport’s launch delay. To verify it, you possibly can go to one other Polymarket web page the place individuals guess on whether or not Jesus will return in 2025. As of Nov. 7, the “sure” has been voted for by solely 2%.
Will Trump point out “hottest” throughout the UK Prime Minister?
So many Polymarket customers guess on what one particular person will say throughout the speech or another public occasion that the platform has a particular “Mentions” part. One of many 2025 guess markets that attracted over $1,300,000 in stakes was whether or not President Donald Trump would say the phrase “hottest” throughout his assembly with the UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on September 8.
It could appear odd that individuals are so invested in whether or not Trump will name something “hottest” throughout the assembly. Nevertheless, the secret’s that in such instances, “investing” needs to be taken actually. Folks would guess on something so long as they noticed an opportunity to chase a fast buck. It seems that Trump didn’t say “hottest,” however the web page of this guess on Polymarket signifies there was a dispute.
At that reception, Trump stated the phrase “hottest.” Folks jumped in and purchased it as much as 99.9%, pondering it has hit. However Polymarket later clarified that this occasion wouldn’t rely within the decision. (right clarification) pic.twitter.com/pfcDDPlj4W
— GreekGamblerPM #150to50k problem (@GreekGamblerPM) September 18, 2025
Talking about something “hottest” within the UK, it’s price saying some individuals guess on whether or not there would be the highest temperature on a specific day in London.
A loopy dealer on @Polymarket has been betting on the best each day temperatures in numerous cities.
Listed here are some examples of his trades:
1. Highest temperature in London on July 30?
Wager: $1,355,889
Revenue: $545,000 (92% return)2. Highest temperature in NYC on September 3?… pic.twitter.com/psPlIFE2iW
— plata o plomo (@plataoplomo1337) October 20, 2025
Will the US verify that aliens exist in 2025?
Whereas NASA claims there is no such thing as a scientifically supported proof of extraterrestrial life, individuals don’t lose religion that we aren’t alone within the Universe and dedicate their lives to discovering convincing indicators and witnesses.
Nevertheless, it’s nonetheless shocking that many individuals are prepared to sacrifice cash for his or her perception that by Dec. 31, 2025, the President of the U.S. or different authorities will verify that extraterrestrial life or know-how exists.
On Polymarket, the “sure” choice surged in January 2025 after reported UFO sightings in California. The “sure” choice peaked at 14% earlier than falling under 7%. Curiously sufficient, even the infamous July claims {that a} area object referred to as 3I/ATLAS could also be an alien spaceship approaching Earth by the autumn didn’t have any impact on Polymarket.
As of Nov. 7, solely 4% of Polymarket customers consider the U.S. authorities will verify the existence of aliens in 2025. The cumulative stake quantities to $4.6 million. Many extra individuals–39%–suppose that Time’s Individual of 2025 is not going to be a human being.
Is the Earth flat?
Whereas some scientists consider there’s a probability we are going to discover life outdoors the Earth sooner or later (not essentially clever life), it’s been some time since any scientist claimed that the Earth is flat.
Nevertheless, if by Dec. 31, strong proof that the Earth is flat is getting printed, 0.7% of betters on Polymarket will hit a jackpot. The guess on whether or not the Earth is flat absorbed some $200,000 in stakes as of Nov. 7.
Will Trump be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Who’s Satoshi Nakamoto? That is the query that thrills many within the crypto neighborhood. Whereas some simply benefit from the delusion concerning the enigmatic Bitcoin creator, some are attempting to guess who the actual Satoshi is. The record of suspects consists of numerous contenders from Roger Ver to Jack Dorsey.
Learn extra: Jack Dorsey is Satoshi Nakamoto, Matthew Sigel of VanEck claims
One of many uncommon guesses is that the title Satoshi Nakamoto factors to the Japanese tech firms’ names: Samsung, Toshiba, Nakamichi, and Motorola. Nevertheless, Polymarket gives even an odder take: Donald Trump, the primary pro-crypto POTUS himself, is the actual Satoshi. No surprise, solely 0.6% of all betters stated “sure” as to if Trump shall be confirmed as Satoshi Nakamoto by Dec. 31, 2025.
Bonus materials: Volodymyr Zelensky’s outfit
That was the 5 craziest bets on Polymarket in 2025. Nevertheless, there’s yet one more case that turned a typical Polymarket prediction into a multitude, elevating considerations over the way in which the principles are formulated.
In Could 2025, individuals started betting on whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would put on a go well with earlier than July. The curiosity in his outfit refers to Zelensky’s ascetic outfits, which he started to put on following the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian navy battle in 2022.
Throughout Zelensky’s go to to the Oval Workplace on Feb. 28, his outfit turned an object of essential remarks by the correspondent of Actual America’s Voice, Brian Glenn. Upon seeing Zelensky, Donald Trump stated, “You’re all dressed up at present.”
The principles learn that “the market will resolve to ‘Sure’ if Volodymyr Zelensky is photographed or videotaped sporting a go well with between Could 22 and June 30.” Initially, the result was resolved as “sure,” however the picture used as proof precipitated a debate over whether or not Zelensky’s outfit might be referred to as a go well with.
The situation for the market was “a consensus of credible reporting.” 50+ shops referred to as it a go well with. So I believe the guess was improperly determined pic.twitter.com/KLT7FrnpYx
— Laura Shin (@laurashin) July 11, 2025
Regardless of many individuals, together with skilled reporters, confirming that Zelensky’s outfit checked as a go well with, the platform modified the result, resolving the market to “no.” This was not the one occasion the place Polymarket’s verdict raised questions, which added much more dangers to the playing facet.
Learn extra: Nobel Peace Prize organizers probing insider buying and selling on Polymarket
