Fed Chair Jerome Powell prevented discussing financial coverage throughout his Oct. 9 Neighborhood Financial institution Convention remarks, supporting Bitcoin’s continued advance towards $150,000.
Matt Mena, Crypto Analysis Strategist at 21Shares, acknowledged in a word that this was a “strategic omission” by Powell.
He characterised the slim focus as “successfully a inexperienced mild for danger belongings” as a result of the US knowledge blackout mutes the macro shocks that usually strain Bitcoin and nudges coverage expectations dovish.
With the federal shutdown halting main releases, akin to jobs and CPI, merchants and the Fed have much less laborious data to justify new hikes.
Moreover, Bitcoin captured over $2.5 billion in inflows from Oct. 6 via Oct. 8, together with Monday’s $1.2 billion single-day haul that ranks because the second-largest on report and drove costs to $126,000.
Flows moderated to $440.7 million on Oct. 8 because the greenback strengthened as a consequence of rising Japanese authorities bond yields, seemingly prompting tactical de-risking.
Markets now value a 95% likelihood of a 25 foundation level (bps) charge reduce on the upcoming FOMC assembly, in accordance with CME FedWatch Software knowledge. December reduce odds stand at 81.5% on CME.
On Polymarket, the chances of a 25 bps charge reduce in December are at 71%. In the meantime, expectations that the US authorities shutdown would stay in place till not less than Oct. 15 reached an all-time excessive of 88%.
Mixed, the chances mirror expectations that prolonged knowledge delays from the shutdown will immediate the Fed to contemplate extra easing.
Mena acknowledged:
“The market is clearly digesting good points earlier than its subsequent leg larger, and structurally, it’s laborious to see a high forming with liquidity constructing beneath. As soon as BTC breaks above $130,000, I anticipate it to maneuver shortly towards $150,000 – nearly like a magnet.”
He added that the consolidation close to all-time highs happens as each the Nasdaq and gold print recent data nearly every day, strengthening the 2 pillars Bitcoin straddles.
Whereas gold serves as a hedge in opposition to foreign money debasement, strengthening Bitcoin’s narrative as an asset for the “debasement commerce,” Nasdaq represents tech proxies for innovation and progress.
Mena tasks Bitcoin may attain $150,000 by year-end, representing a 22% achieve from present ranges.
He concluded:
“Powell could have stayed silent, however liquidity expectations are obvious, and the remainder of the market appears to be catching the bid.”
