The Kobeissi Letter reported that Open Curiosity in Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME hit a report of 51,000. In response to the market analyst, CME’s surge in open curiosity in Bitcoin futures coincided with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs final yr.
The Kobeissi Letter revealed that Open Curiosity(OI) in Bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Alternate(CME) had recorded an all time excessive of 51,000. The analyst highlighted the variety of energetic positions that had risen fivefold for the reason that starting of 2024.
#Bitcoin buying and selling exercise has by no means been higher:
Open curiosity in Bitcoin futures contracts on CME is now at a report 51,000.
The variety of energetic positions held by market individuals has risen 5 TIMES for the reason that starting of 2024.
This coincided with the launch of spot… pic.twitter.com/6z1sdTqoqU
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 8, 2025
BTC futures open curiosity on CME hits all-time excessive
Kobeissi Letter famous the elevated energetic positions held by market individuals coincided with spot Bitcoin ETFs launched on January 2024. The corporate indicated that spot BTC ETFs had been main drivers behind the present all-time excessive.
Kobeissi Letter speculated that spot ETFs, not like futures-based ETFs, present traders with direct publicity to Bitcoin. It additionally identified that since spot ETFs began buying and selling, Bitcoin funds have attracted $44 billion in cumulative inflows.
In response to Glassnode, extra Bitcoin futures contracts are cash-margined than crypto-margined, indicating they’re pegged on the US greenback, not cryptocurrencies. The Chicago Mercantile Alternate (CME) is reportedly the biggest participant, with over 40% of all cash-margined contracts.
CME Open Curiosity reached new notional all-time highs yesterday of 172,430 BTC!
The prevailing institutional bias is constructing lengthy publicity. Alongside the wild surge in open curiosity, futures premiums have climbed to 5-month highs. pic.twitter.com/I1Q5iT8hZn
— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) October 16, 2024
In October 2024, Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Analysis, commented on the back-to-back all-time highs in CME Open Curiosity all year long and identified numerous drivers of its progress.
He instructed that energetic and direct market individuals are driving the surge fairly than hypothesis. Lunde identified that inflows from futures-based ETFs similar to ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) had been additionally minimal and couldn’t have led to the surge.
The analyst offered a breakdown of open curiosity by cohort on the CME, mentioning that energetic and direct individuals held over 85,000 BTC. Lunde highlighted that this quantity was equal to what was held in March 2024.
Nonetheless, he identified that the 1x leveraged ETF declined all through 2024 and held 31,752 BTC. Lunde additionally added that the 2x leveraged ETF has solely recorded slight progress since March, indicating that leverage is not a progress catalyst within the present market.
Bitcoin outperforms all different belongings in 2024
In response to Coinmarketcap, Bitcoin recorded an over 120% surge in 2024 amid developments within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, such because the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Kobeissi Letter commented that BTC outperformed all different asset lessons in 2024. Bloomberg additionally reported that BTC outperformed belongings similar to Cocoa, world equities, and gold previously yr.
Coinmarketcap reported that in mid-December, BTC recorded an all-time excessive of $108,315 following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory. The surge was reportedly fueled by investor optimism for the reason that presidential candidate had signaled that he would implement crypto-friendly insurance policies as soon as he assumed workplace. Nonetheless, the worth of digital belongings eased after the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, introduced that price cuts would roll out slower than anticipated.
The digital asset has since maintained its set wall between $99,700 and $100,000. Nonetheless, as of the time of writing, BTC traded at $94,099, a 2% decline in 24 hours. In response to CoinGlass, Bitcoin clearing the $99,000 mark may trigger large-scale liquidations, resulting in a surge in spot worth.
Regardless of the market optimism, market gamers similar to Peter Hughes, founding father of Evolve Investing, warned traders in opposition to the volatility dangers offered by Bitcoin. QCP Capital, in its be aware to its shoppers, additionally expressed its perception that the catalyst could come after establishments readjust asset allocation.
