Bitcoin’s worth will greater than double inside the subsequent six months, swelling to $250,000, in response to Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, as U.S. President Donald Trump strikes away from the market-rattling impression of tariffs towards different fiscal insurance policies.
“Midterm elections are developing within the U.S.,” he advised Decrypt at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas. “Whereas the Trump administration went onerous on tariffs and was taking this market ache for the final three months, that narrative has to shift.”
As an alternative of pursuing commerce insurance policies that would weigh on financial development and doubtlessly harm People’ means to afford on a regular basis items, Hayes—who has made his justifiable share of daring predictions—argued that the president should present he “introduced goodies for the inhabitants” to assist Republicans on the poll field come 2026.
“They’re going to speed up the cash printing,” Hayes mentioned, referring to the Federal Reserve—an impartial authorities company that’s primarily answerable for managing the U.S. cash provide.
Amongst insurance policies that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has teased as fiscal stimulus, Hayes highlighted potential modifications to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-backed mortgage giants which were underneath authorities oversight because the 2008 monetary disaster.
If the government-sponsored enterprises are allowed to go public and lift capital once more, that might inject low cost liquidity into the housing market, Hayes mentioned. Permitting them to “lever up their stability sheets” would additionally make mortgages extra reasonably priced, he mentioned. Amongst knock-on results, elevated housing exercise may theoretically spur financial development and assist risk-on belongings.
On high of that, discussions surrounding a so-called supplemental leverage ratio, or SLR, exemption for U.S. Treasuries are bullish, Hayes mentioned. In essence, the White Home needs to ease leverage ratios for banks in relation to their publicity to U.S. debt.
“That enables the U.S. banking system to use infinite leverage to purchase treasury bonds is clearly very constructive for international capital markets,” he added.
Lastly, Hayes sees the federal government shifting from tariffs to capital controls to assist American manufacturing in a extra politically palatable manner. As an alternative of taxing imports, the U.S. may tax overseas authorities holdings of bonds, equities, and land that stem from commerce long-running commerce imbalances.
How that would drive governments towards gold and Bitcoin is a central theme of his newest essay, which additionally predicts that Bitcoin will hit $1 million earlier than 2028. Earlier this month, Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would hit $150,000 this yr, versus $250,000.
Billionaire investor Tim Draper made an analogous name this month, highlighting regulatory tailwinds for the asset underneath the Trump administration. Bitcoin’s path to $250,000 this yr will even be bolstered by myriad corporations adopting Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, he mentioned.
With Congress weighing legislative initiatives that would doubtlessly set up guidelines for stablecoins and create a regulatory taxonomy for a lot of cash, Hayes additionally advised Decrypt that Ethereum will make its personal comeback this yr, rising as excessive as $5,000.
Edited by James Rubin
