Based on knowledge shared by STIX founder Taran Sabharwal, traders holding locked tokens have confronted main losses over the previous yr.
Between Could 2024 and April 2025, the typical drop in worth from over-the-counter (OTC) valuations to present spot costs recorded was round 50%.
Locked Tokens Underperform Amid Market Decline
Sabharwal’s evaluation highlighted that many traders missed alternatives to exit at double at present’s costs in 2024, as market situations led to widespread devaluations throughout main tokens. Unreleased token offers are sometimes made early with long-term expectations, however over the previous yr, market modifications and project-specific points have led to heavy losses.
Virtually all of the tracked tasks have seen giant drops in worth. Scroll (SCR) and Blast (BLAST) have been hit the worst, falling by 85% and 88% respectively. Eigenlayer (EIGEN) adopted with a 75% drop. Different tasks like ZKsync (ZK) at -64%, Wormhole (W) at -50%, and io.web (IO) at -48% additionally noticed sharp declines. Jito was the one undertaking to submit positive aspects, rising 75% over the identical interval.
General, these early-stage token traders who dedicated to locked positions confronted better losses than the overall crypto market. Knowledge from Artemis exhibits the broader market declined by a median of 40.7% throughout the identical timeframe, about 20% lower than the typical loss for locked tokens.
Traders Are Dealing with Extra Losses
Additional, when factoring in liquidity worth over the previous 12 months, such holders misplaced one other 31% in alternative price when in comparison with Bitcoin (BTC), which gained 45% throughout the identical interval. On prime of that, with over $40 billion in locked altcoins set to be launched quickly, sellers are actually dealing with one other 50% low cost when exiting by OTC markets.
Based mostly on this knowledge, $1 invested a yr in the past would now be value $1.45 in BTC. Then again, that very same $1 held in an unreleased coin is now value $0.50. Additional, with the present OTC low cost, it might promote for under $0.25. This leads to a complete worth lack of roughly 82.8% in comparison with BTC, and 75% in comparison with the USD.
The analyst additionally famous that since most cryptocurrencies are reaching the top of their cliff durations in 2025, reductions are barely decrease now on account of shorter vesting durations.
Locked tokens often include vesting schedules or restrictions that delay when they are often offered. This leaves holders uncovered to cost modifications through the lock-up interval, as they can not instantly liquidate their holdings.
