Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 3% to $98,550.33 as of press time, falling beneath the psychological $100,000 threshold for the third time this month amid cascading leverage liquidations, persistent ETF outflows, and a broader risk-off posture throughout digital property.
The slide accelerated after Bitcoin broke assist at $100,000, triggering over $190 million in lengthy liquidations prior to now hour, per Coinglass knowledge.
Bitcoin failed to interrupt by means of the support-turned-resistance stage at $106,400 earlier this week, elevating considerations about what was to come back. Nonetheless, each time it misplaced that stage, it has all the time rebounded across the psychological $100,000 assist or a minimum of the $99,000 assist created again in June.
Whole liquidations throughout the previous 24 hours reached $655 million, amplifying downward momentum as over-leveraged positions unwound.
Ethereum declined 5.75% to $3,218.37, Solana dropped 5.2% to $145.55, and BNB fell 3.2% to $922.90, reflecting synchronized promoting strain throughout main tokens.
ETF flows flip adverse as institutional demand softens
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded web outflows of $278 million on Nov. 12, contributing to roughly $961 million in cumulative redemptions this month, in accordance with Farside Buyers.
The shift from web inflows to modest withdrawals removes a key stabilizing drive that supported costs by means of mid-2025, leaving spot markets extra weak to derivatives-driven volatility.
Historic patterns recommend that ETF circulation reversals typically coincide with consolidation phases quite than durations of directional conviction.
Glassnode’s Nov. 12 evaluation confirms that Bitcoin has traded beneath the short-term holder price foundation of $111,900 since early October, establishing a bearish regime characterised by low liquidity and weak conviction.
The community’s short-term holder realized profit-loss ratio fell beneath 0.21 close to $98,000, indicating that over 80% of the realized worth got here from cash offered at a loss, representing a capitulation depth exceeding that of the final three main washouts of the present cycle.
Glassnode identifies the sub-$100,000 zone as a important battleground the place vendor exhaustion is starting to take form. Nonetheless, a sustained restoration requires Bitcoin to reclaim the $111,900 price foundation as a stage of assist.
Sentiment deteriorates as leverage dries up
Bitcoin perpetual futures funding charges stay subdued throughout main exchanges, with each funding charges and open curiosity drifting decrease since October’s leverage flush.
The absence of aggressive positioning displays market hesitation, with merchants avoiding directional bets as volatility expectations stay elevated.
Choices market knowledge reinforces this defensive stance. Put safety trades are priced at an 11% implied volatility premium over requires short-term expiries, indicating that merchants proceed to pay for draw back insurance coverage.
Open curiosity concentrates closely across the $100,000 strike for end-of-November expiries, making this stage a important threshold the place vendor hedging flows might amplify volatility if breached.
Current choice flows have targeted on places between the $108,000 and $95,000 strikes, structured as outright safety or calendar spreads that seize expectations of near-term turbulence.
Glassnode’s price foundation distribution heatmap reveals a dense provide cluster between $106,000 and $118,000, representing traders positioned to exit close to breakeven.
This provide overhang creates pure resistance the place rallies could stall except renewed inflows soak up distribution strain.
The agency notes demand from short-term holders, a proxy for brand spanking new investor momentum, has remained notably weak since June 2025, reflecting an absence of recent capital getting into the market.
Broader threat sentiment deteriorated alongside crypto declines, with increased actual yields and protracted funding stress pressuring speculative property regardless of the latest decision of the US authorities shutdown.
Morgan Stanley’s latest “fall season” observe suggested shoppers to reap positive factors quite than chase upside throughout this part of the four-year cycle, contributing to diminished threat urge for food amongst institutional allocators.
The mixture of heavy leverage positioning, gentle ETF demand, and structural resistance above present costs reworked every breach beneath $100,000 right into a self-reinforcing cascade.
