Financial institution of America’s 2026 market outlook paints an image of robust world progress, led by AI funding, however warns that volatility may rise as traders start to understand the total impression of the expertise on the financial system.
The financial institution’s world analysis workforce expects U.S. GDP to develop 2.4% year-over-year by the top of 2026, above consensus, pushed by enterprise funding, fiscal stimulus, and up to date fee cuts. China’s progress can also be projected to beat expectations, with forecasts at 4.7% for 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
However probably the most vital pressure shaping the financial institution’s forecast is synthetic intelligence.
The surge in AI spending is already lifting GDP and BofA doesn’t see a bubble — but. “We’re optimistic on the 2 most influential economies,” mentioned Candace Browning, head of BofA world analysis. “Issues about an imminent AI bubble are overstated.” In accordance with the report, AI-related capital funding is poised to increase additional subsequent 12 months, supporting what some economists imagine may develop into a brand new funding cycle.
Bitcoin BTC$91,878.33 miners have benefited from the AI growth in 2025, as surging demand for high-performance computing has pushed up the worth of their infrastructure. A number of publicly traded mining corporations reported elevated income this 12 months not simply from mining, however from leasing out knowledge middle capability to AI corporations in want of power-hungry GPUs.
IREN (IREN) is up 337.15% year-to-date whereas Cipher Mining (CIFR) is buying and selling almost 300% greater. TeraWulf (WULF) is up 190% over the identical interval. The positive aspects as come whilst bitcoin has didn’t convincingly escape this 12 months, persevering with to commerce across the $90,000 space.
In impact, markets are shifting from a consumption-led restoration to at least one pushed by capital expenditure, infrastructure, and productiveness. If that shift holds, it may ripple past conventional equities and into areas like digital infrastructure, blockchain, and knowledge monetization — domains the place crypto tasks have staked a declare.
Nonetheless, the financial institution sees turbulence forward. As traders and policymakers develop a clearer image of how AI impacts inflation, labor markets, and provide chains, monetary markets may expertise sharp shifts. BofA warns that the continuing “Okay-shaped” restoration, the place some sectors soar whereas others lag, provides complexity to this outlook.
That disconnect may deepen if AI amplifies productiveness in tech and finance whereas leaving slower-moving sectors behind. The end result: a two-speed financial system that’s more durable to handle with conventional instruments. For markets, it raises the danger of mispricing and sudden revaluations.
Rising markets could profit within the close to time period, particularly if the U.S. greenback weakens and oil costs keep low. BofA notes that these areas are prone to see stronger efficiency in 2026, helped by world financial easing. For some creating nations that skipped legacy infrastructure in favor of digital techniques, rising AI demand may create new openings for different applied sciences.
Nonetheless, the tone of the report is cautiously upbeat. With two Fed cuts projected in 2026 and monetary coverage nonetheless operating sizzling, the financial backdrop stays supportive, at the very least for now.
In a 12 months the place copper costs are rising on the again of provide constraints and monetary growth, and S&P earnings are anticipated to develop 14% regardless of muted value positive aspects, the market appears primed for change. Whether or not AI turns into a productiveness engine or a supply of instability may very well be one of many defining questions of the following twelve months.
And in that debate, crypto — particularly in its extra infrastructure-focused kinds — could have a task to play, even when it’s not on the middle of the dialog but.
