The concept that the value of bitcoin (BTC) follows an unbreakable four-year “rule,” decided by the halving, is being significantly questioned by funding agency Grayscale.
The bitcoin market is linked to halving cycles, an occasion that halves the reward for mining Bitcoin. This has marked the cycles wherein bitcoin bull and bear markets are skilled each 4 years. Because of this after three years of sturdy will increase, the fourth 12 months (2026) turns into the bear market part.
Nevertheless, though the outlook is unsure, the agency believes that “the four-year cycle thesis will show incorrect and that the value of bitcoin may attain new highs in 2026.” The central argument is that this cycle has been completely different from the start.
This Grayscale projection means that Digital forex is within the midst of a “tremendous cycle” pushed by unprecedented institutional adoptionquestioning the validity of the standard four-year cycle, altering the historic dynamics of the market.
Why did this bitcoin cycle break the mildew?
The Grayscale analysis staff explains the 2 primary causes. The primary is that, not like earlier cycles, “there was no parabolic worth enhance throughout this bull market that might point out an overshoot,” he notes.
To raised perceive the distinction with earlier cycles, a graph is introduced beneath, illustrating the evolution of the value of BTC all through its historic cycles and the present pattern which, based on Grayscale, lacks the parabolic slope.
Whereas secondly, the construction of the bitcoin market has modified. “The brand new capital is coming primarily from ETFs and company treasuries, not from retail alternate platforms.”
That cash stream transformation is vital to understanding why bitcoin’s four-year rule might be blown up in 2026.
Grayscale analysts detect indicators that bitcoin already hit backside in November. “The asymmetry of Bitcoin put choices could be very excessive, particularly for the 3- and 6-month tenors, suggesting that traders have already largely hedged the draw back publicity,” they spotlight.
Moreover, the biggest put choices in company treasuries are buying and selling at a reduction to web asset worth, “which may additionally point out slight speculative positioning, usually a precursor to restoration.”
Nevertheless, Grayscale acknowledges that institutional demand stays tepid. With futures open curiosity on the decline, detrimental flows into bitcoin ETFs via the top of November and new peaks in Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), an indicator that tracks the gross sales actions of previous hodlers, referred to as “OGs” (a time period that refers back to the first and longest traders in bitcoin).
The chart illustrates the spikes within the CDD metric (vertical bars) together with the value of bitcoin, demonstrating the OGs’ promoting actions:
“In some ways, 2025 has been an exceptionally good 12 months for the digital asset trade,” Grayscale summarizes. Regulatory readability in the USA opened the door to a wave of institutional funding that, based on the agency, “will lay the inspiration for continued development within the coming years.”
The bitcoin tremendous cycle thesis just isn’t alone
There’s a division of opinion within the ecosystem in regards to the validity of the standard 4-year bitcoin cycle. Those that argue its obsolescence, reminiscent of Grayscale, level out that Institutional funding and better regulatory readability, primarily from the USA, have remodeled the market.
Arthur Hayes, founding father of the BitMEX alternate, is without doubt one of the defenders of this place, guaranteeing that conventional bitcoin cycles are “lifeless” and the sample will fail in 2026 attributable to macroeconomic components. He factors to an enormous liquidity injection by financial coverage makers in the USA and China, which might profit the asset and stop the 4-year bearish cycle from materializing.
For his half, Guillermo Fernandes, investor and guide, agrees with this imaginative and prescient, stating that the inflow of capital from Wall Road and institutional funding implies that the bitcoin market shall be extra vulnerable to the behaviors and incentives of public markets, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
This would result in much less outlined cycles over a four-year interval and nearer to quarterly cycles. The attitude of a market extra aligned with quarterly incentives and fewer depending on the halving calendar is gaining power.
Opposing voices don’t disappear
Not everybody shares the optimism. Henrik Zeberg, chief economist at SwissBlock, warns that “bitcoin just isn’t the protected haven many imagine; its correlation with the Nasdaq may drag it right into a devastating fall.”
Willy Woo, one other analyst from the identical agency, assures that “there’s nonetheless a bullish path, however we anticipate a bear market as soon as world macroeconomic markets change.”
Bitcoin reached its all-time excessive of $126,000 on October 6, 2025 after which fell to $80,500 on November 21, a 32% decline. In keeping with historic information, the common corrections in a bull market are round 30%, so the motion is inside the norm, Grayscale factors out.
The next graph exhibits the evolution of the BTC worth from January 2023 to the top of 2025:
Since 2010, bitcoin has suffered no less than 50 falls of greater than 10%. Within the present bullish cycle, which started after the November 2022 backside, there have already been 9 corrections of that magnitude. “It has been a bumpy interval, however not atypical,” Grayscale remembers.
What can set off bitcoin’s subsequent transfer?
Within the quick time period, the FED assembly on December 10 shall be decisive. “Decrease actual rates of interest ought to be thought of detrimental for the greenback and optimistic for belongings reminiscent of gold and bitcoin,” the report notes.
Whereas within the medium time period, the development of the cryptocurrency market construction invoice (CLARITY Act) in the USA Congress might be the definitive catalyst.
If cryptocurrencies preserve their bipartisan nature heading into the midterm elections, “we may see better institutional funding and, finally, greater valuations,” Grayscale concludes.
The view from Grayscale and different analysts that bitcoin will surpass the four-year “rule” in 2026 is closely anchored within the evolution of its investor base towards the institutional, a shift that might rewrite the foundations of volatility and development for the digital asset.
