TL;DR:
- Bitcoin’s RSI divergence reveals weakening draw back momentum, hinting at a possible shift towards potential restoration.
- Quick-term holders offloaded 30.9K BTC to exchanges, taking realized losses value about $3.3 billion.
- Persistent unfavorable trade netflows level to accumulation, decreasing provide obtainable for instant promoting strain.
Bullish Divergence on the Chart
Bitcoin is exhibiting early indicators of a potential reversal after its newest decline. The worth has fallen from above $114,000 to round $111,500, making decrease lows. On the similar time, the Relative Power Index (RSI) has moved larger, forming a bullish divergence on the 2-hour chart.
Analyst Merlijn The Dealer commented:
$BTC JUST FLASHED A BULLISH DIVERGENCE.
Worth made decrease lows. RSI made larger lows.
After the dump… momentum is shifting.
That is the place reversals are born. pic.twitter.com/kP6RGwZ4PQ
— Merlijn The Dealer (@MerlijnTrader) September 23, 2025
Larger closes following the drop recommend momentum is beginning to transfer away from sellers.
For the time being, Bitcoin is buying and selling close to $112,700 with a every day quantity near $49 billion. It has slipped barely within the final 24 hours and is down 4% over the previous week. The instant help vary sits between $111,500 and $113,000.
Merlijn pointed to 2 potential outcomes.
“AFTER THE DUMP COMES OPPORTUNITY. $BTC simply gave us the setup legends await,” he mentioned.
In a single situation, Bitcoin holds above help and rebounds towards $124,000. Within the different, the extent breaks, sending value decrease into the $102,000–$104,000 vary earlier than staging a restoration towards $120,000.
Quick-Time period Holders Promoting at a Loss
On-chain flows present heavy promoting strain from short-term holders. Analyst Ted famous:
$3,390,000,000 $BTC is moved to exchanges.
Greed ✅ → concern ⌛️→ selloff → accumulation → rally. https://t.co/jgwtRaEVFt pic.twitter.com/dqgzkU9O6C
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 23, 2025
Knowledge signifies about 30.9K BTC was moved to exchanges inside 24 hours at a realized lack of roughly $3.39 billion.
This exercise displays capitulation from current patrons. In previous cycles, comparable loss-taking occasions at key ranges have aligned with native bottoms, as long-term holders take up provide from weaker fingers.
Change Netflows Present Outflows
Change netflow knowledge provides additional context. Over current weeks, massive outflows have dominated, with a number of days exceeding 20,000 BTC leaving exchanges. Through the newest decline to $112,000, outflows spiked near 30,000 BTC.
Sustained withdrawals imply that buyers are placing cash into storage as an alternative of getting ready to promote. Traditionally, persistent outflows amid value weak point have been key marks of accumulation phases, lowering provide on exchanges and organising restoration circumstances.
Bitcoin stays below strain by means of this section with potential proof of change. Bullish divergence, short-term capitulation, and constant outflows from exchanges might foster circumstances the place the value can bounce again, supplied help holds.
