Bitcoin (BTC) might see its strongest half-year efficiency ever in late 2025, pushed by document ETF inflows, coverage dangers to the Federal Reserve, and broadening sovereign adoption, in keeping with Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital property analysis at Commonplace Chartered.
In a July 2 analysis be aware, Kendrick forecasted that ETF inflows and company treasury purchases will exceed the second-quarter ranges of 245,000 BTC in each the third and fourth quarters.
The lender maintained its earlier prediction of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by year-end and up to date its third quarter outlook for Bitcoin with a $135,000 value projection.
He added that Bitcoin ETF flows have already topped expectations, with the market beginning to realise that the crypto’s post-halving value patterns stay intact regardless of earlier doubts.
Coverage tailwinds and sovereign shopping for
Kendrick additionally highlighted that along with the shopping for surge, markets are dealing with rising dangers to Federal Reserve independence as President Donald Trump might doubtlessly change Fed Chair Jerome Powell early, bringing a shift towards looser financial coverage.
In line with Kendrick:
“ETF inflows and company treasury flows are all US policy-linked.”
Additional boosting Bitcoin’s outlook is the passage of the GENIUS Act within the US, which just lately secured Senate approval. Commonplace Chartered famous that such laws would improve regulatory readability, facilitate broader adoption, and combine crypto additional into the standard monetary system.
Kendrick additionally predicted broadening sovereign adoption of Bitcoin and stated that any proof of national-level shopping for would assist long-term demand and value stability, just like the impression seen from company treasury accumulation in latest months.
Halving cycle concept is over
The be aware additionally addressed market worries about Bitcoin’s halving cycle, a scheduled occasion each 4 years that cuts mining rewards in half and traditionally influences value patterns.
Kendrick defined that in earlier cycles, Bitcoin costs have fallen about 18 months after a halving, which might indicate potential declines round September or October of this yr based mostly on the April 2024 halving.
Nevertheless, Commonplace Chartered believes that the dynamic has modified. Kendrick wrote that because of robust ETF inflows and company treasury shopping for, elements that have been absent in earlier cycles, Bitcoin could keep away from the standard post-halving decline.
He stated value is prone to be unstable in late September and early October as markets deal with this historic sample, however forecasted that the uptrend will resume at year-end, pushed by these new structural demand elements.
Kendrick concluded that the approaching months will reveal how Bitcoin has moved past its earlier halving cycle behaviour, summarising his outlook merely:
“Buckle up.”
